Institutional boundaries and the challenges of aligning science advice and policy dynamics: the UK and Canada in the time of COVID-19.

This comparison of institutions of science advice during COVID-19 between the Westminster systems of England/UK and Ontario/Canada focuses on the role of science in informing public policy in two central components of the response to the pandemic: the adoption of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and the procuring of vaccines. It compares and contrasts established and purpose-built bodies with varying degrees of independence from the political executive, and shows how each attempted to manage the tensions between scientific and governmental logics of accountability as they negotiated the boundary between science and policy. It uses the comparison to suggest potential lessons about the relative merits and drawbacks of different institutional arrangements for science advice to governments in an emergency.

How valid are projections of the future prevalence of diabetes? Rapid reviews of prevalence-based and Markov chain models and comparisons of different models' projections for England.

OBJECTIVES: To examine validity of prevalence-based models giving projections of prevalence of diabetes in adults, in England and the UK, and of Markov chain models giving estimates of economic impacts of interventions to prevent type 2 diabetes (T2D). METHODS: Rapid reviews of both types of models. Estimation of the future prevalence of T2D in England by Markov chain models; and from the trend in the prevalence of diabetes, as reported in the Quality and Outcomes Framework (QOF), estimated by ordinary least squares regression analysis. SETTING: Adult population in England and UK. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Prevalence of T2D in England and UK in 2025. RESULTS: The prevalence-based models reviewed use sample estimates of past prevalence rates by age and sex and projected population changes. Three most recent models, including that of Public Health England (PHE), neither take account of increases in obesity, nor report Confidence Intervals (CIs). The Markov chain models reviewed use transition probabilities between states of risk and death, estimated from various sources. None of their accounts give the full matrix of transition probabilities, and only a minority report tests of validation. Their primary focus is on estimating the ratio of costs to benefits of preventive interventions in those with hyperglycaemia, only one reported estimates of those developing T2D in the absence of a preventive intervention in the general population.Projections of the prevalence of T2D in England in 2025 were (in millions) by PHE, 3.95; from the QOF trend, 4.91 and by two Markov chain models, based on our review, 5.64 and 9.07. CONCLUSIONS: To inform national policies on preventing T2D, governments need validated models, designed to use available data, which estimate the scale of incidence of T2D and survival in the general population, with and without preventive interventions.

Reputations count: why benchmarking performance is improving health care across the world.

This paper explores what motivates improved health care performance. Previously, many have thought that performance would either improve via choice and competition or by relying on trust and altruism. But neither assumption is supported by available evidence. So instead we explore a third approach of reciprocal altruism with sanctions for unacceptably poor performance and rewards for high performance. These rewards and sanctions, however, are not monetary, but in the form of reputational effects through public reporting of benchmarking of performance. Drawing on natural experiments in Italy and the United Kingdom, we illustrate how public benchmarking can improve poor performance at the national level through 'naming and shaming' and enhance good performance at the sub-national level through 'competitive benchmarking' and peer learning. Ethnographic research in Zambia also showed how reputations count. Policy-makers could use these effects in different ways to improve public services.

A scoping review protocol to map the evidence on interventions to prevent overweight and obesity in children.

INTRODUCTION: Obesity has become one of the biggest public health problems of the 21st century. Prevalence of obesity in children and adolescents has increased dramatically worldwide over the last 20 years, and this trend is expected to continue. Obesity in childhood is concerning as it predicts obesity in adulthood, a common risk factor for a wide array of chronic diseases and poor health outcomes. Obesity is preventable and a vast but fragmented body of evidence on preventative interventions is now available. This article outlines the protocol for a scoping review of published literature reviews on interventions to prevent obesity in children. The scoping review addresses the broad research question 'What is the evidence on interventions to prevent childhood obesity?'. It aims to give an overview of the various interventions available, understand those which are effective and identify barriers and facilitators to their effectiveness. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The six-staged Arksey and O'Malley methodology framework is used to guide the scoping review process: following the definition of the research questions (stage 1); the eligibility criteria and search strategy are defined (stage 2); the study selection process based on the eligibility criteria identified will follow (stage 3); a framework developed for this review will then inform the extraction and charting of data from the included reviews (stage 4); results will be aggregated and summarised with criteria relevant for health professionals and policy-makers (stage 5); and the optional consultation (stage 6) exercise is not planned. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Since the scoping review methodology aims at synthetising information from available publications, this study does not require ethical approval. An article reporting the results of the scoping review will be submitted for publication to a scientific journal, presented at relevant conferences and disseminated as part of future workshops with professionals involved in obesity prevention.

Visualizing value for money in public health interventions.

Background: The Socio-Technical Allocation of Resources (STAR) has been developed for value for money analysis of health services through stakeholder workshops. This article reports on its application for prioritization of interventions within public health programmes. Methods: The STAR tool was used by identifying costs and service activity for interventions within commissioned public health programmes, with benefits estimated from the literature on economic evaluations in terms of costs per Quality-Adjusted Life Years (QALYs); consensus on how these QALY values applied to local services was obtained with local commissioners. Results: Local cost-effectiveness estimates could be made for some interventions. Methodological issues arose from gaps in the evidence base for other interventions, inability to closely match some performance monitoring data with interventions, and disparate time horizons of published QALY data. Practical adjustment for these issues included using population prevalences and utility states where intervention specific evidence was lacking, and subdivision of large contracts into specific intervention costs using staffing ratios. The STAR approach proved useful in informing commissioning decisions and understanding the relative value of local public health interventions. Conclusions: Further work is needed to improve robustness of the process and develop a visualization tool for use by public health departments.

Preventing type 2 diabetes: systematic review of studies of cost-effectiveness of lifestyle programmes and metformin, with and without screening, for pre-diabetes.

OBJECTIVE: Explore the cost-effectiveness of lifestyle interventions and metformin in reducing subsequent incidence of type 2 diabetes, both alone and in combination with a screening programme to identify high-risk individuals. DESIGN: Systematic review of economic evaluations. DATA SOURCES AND ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: Database searches (Embase, Medline, PreMedline, NHS EED) and citation tracking identified economic evaluations of lifestyle interventions or metformin alone or in combination with screening programmes in people at high risk of developing diabetes. The International Society for Pharmaco-economics and Outcomes Research's Questionnaire to Assess Relevance and Credibility of Modelling Studies for Informing Healthcare Decision Making was used to assess study quality. RESULTS: 27 studies were included; all had evaluated lifestyle interventions and 12 also evaluated metformin. Primary studies exhibited considerable heterogeneity in definitions of pre-diabetes and intensity and duration of lifestyle programmes. Lifestyle programmes and metformin appeared to be cost effective in preventing diabetes in high-risk individuals (median incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of £7490/quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) and £8428/QALY, respectively) but economic estimates varied widely between studies. Intervention-only programmes were in general more cost effective than programmes that also included a screening component. The longer the period evaluated, the more cost-effective interventions appeared. In the few studies that evaluated other economic considerations, budget impact of prevention programmes was moderate (0.13%-0.2% of total healthcare budget), financial payoffs were delayed (by 9-14 years) and impact on incident cases of diabetes was limited (0.1%-1.6% reduction). There was insufficient evidence to answer the question of (1) whether lifestyle programmes are more cost effective than metformin or (2) whether low-intensity lifestyle interventions are more cost effective than the more intensive lifestyle programmes that were tested in trials. CONCLUSIONS: The economics of preventing diabetes are complex. There is some evidence that diabetes prevention programmes are cost effective, but the evidence base to date provides few clear answers regarding design of prevention programmes because of differences in denominator populations, definitions, interventions and modelling assumptions.

What Can We Learn from the UK's "Natural Experiments" of the Benefits of Regions?

Marchildon highlights the lack of evidence on policies of regionalization in Canada: with regionalization being in favour in the 2000s followed by disillusion and the abolition of regions by some provincial governments. This paper looks at evidence from the UK's single-payer system of the impacts of regions on the performance of the delivery of healthcare. In England, regions were an important part of the hierarchical structure of the National Health Service (NHS) from its beginning, in 1948, to the introduction of provider competition, in the 1990s. Since then, in England, governments have understood that the NHS cannot be run from Whitehall and have tried to replace hierarchical control by provider competition. The consequence was that regions in England were subjected to frequent reorganizations from the mid-1990s with their abolition being announced in 2010. In contrast, the devolved countries of the UK have always been organized as "regions" in the form of their historic national boundaries. This paper argues that changes in the NHS in the UK in the 1990s and 2000s offer three "natural experiments," in terms of funding, organization and models of governance, that give evidence of the impacts of stable regions in the UK. It also considers the lessons of this evidence for Canada.

Variation in Utilization and Need for Tympanostomy Tubes across England and New England.

OBJECTIVES: To compare rates of typmanostomy tube insertions for otitis media with effusion with estimates of need in 2 countries. STUDY DESIGN: This cross-sectional analysis used all-payer claims to calculate rates of tympanostomy tube insertions for insured children ages 2-8 years (2007-2010) across pediatric surgical areas (PSA) for Northern New England (NNE; Maine, Vermont, and New Hampshire) and the English National Health Service Primary Care Trusts (PCT). Rates were compared with expected rates estimated using a Monte Carlo simulation model that integrates clinical guidelines and published probabilities of the incidence and course of otitis media with effusion. RESULTS: Observed rates of tympanostomy tube placement varied >30-fold across English PCT (N = 150) and >3-fold across NNE PSA (N = 30). At a 25 dB hearing threshold, the overall difference in observed to expected tympanostomy tubes provided was -3.41 per 1000 child-years in England and -0.01 per 1000 child-years in NNE. Observed incidence of insertion was less than expected in 143 of 151 PCT, and was higher than expected in one-half of the PSA. Using a 20 dB hearing threshold, there were fewer tube insertions than expected in all but 2 England and 7 NNE areas. There was an inverse relationship between estimated need and observed tube insertion rates. CONCLUSIONS: Regional variations in observed tympanostomy tube insertion rates are unlikely to be due to differences in need and suggest overall underuse in England and both overuse and underuse in NNE.

Incentives and models of governance.

This short commentary on Oliver's review of incentives relates that review to four models of governance: Trust and Altruism (T&A), Choice and Competition (C&C), Naming and Shaming (N&S) and Targets and Terror (T&T).

STAR--people-powered prioritization: a 21st-century solution to allocation headaches.

The aim of cost effectiveness analysis (CEA) is to inform the allocation of scarce resources. CEA is routinely used in assessing the cost-effectiveness of specific health technologies by agencies such as the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) in England and Wales. But there is extensive evidence that because of barriers of accessibility and acceptability, CEA has not been used by local health planners in their annual task of allocating fixed budgets to a wide range of types of health care. This paper argues that these planners can use Socio Technical Allocation of Resources (STAR) for that task. STAR builds on the principles of CEA and the practice of program budgeting and marginal analysis. STAR uses requisite models to assess the cost-effectiveness of all interventions considered for resource reallocation by explicitly applying the theory of health economics to evidence of scale, costs, and benefits, with deliberation facilitated through an interactive social process of engaging key stakeholders. In that social process, the stakeholders generate missing estimates of scale, costs, and benefits of the interventions; develop visual models of their relative cost-effectiveness; and interpret the results. We demonstrate the feasibility of STAR by showing how it was used by a local health planning agency of the English National Health Service, the Isle of Wight Primary Care Trust, to allocate a fixed budget in 2008 and 2009.

Using an epidemiological model to investigate unwarranted variation: the case of ventilation tubes for otitis media with effusion in England.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate unwarranted variation in ventilation tube insertions for otitis media with effusion in children in England. This procedure is known to be 'overused' from clinical audits, as only one in three ventilation tube insertions conforms to the appropriateness criteria of the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE); but audits cannot identify the scale of 'underuse' - i.e. patients who would benefit but are not treated. METHODS: To explore both 'underuse' and 'overuse' of ventilation tubes for otitis media with effusion, we developed an epidemiological model based on: definitions of children with otitis media with effusion expected to benefit from ventilation tubes according to NICE guidance; epidemiological and clinical information from a systematic review; and expert judgement. A range of estimates was derived using Monte Carlo simulation and compared with the number of ventilation tubes provided in the English National Health Service in 2010. RESULTS: About 32,200 children in England would be expected to benefit from ventilation tubes for otitis media with effusion per year (between 20,411 and 45,231 with 90% certainty). The observed number of ventilation tubes for otitis media with effusion-associated diagnoses was 16,824. CONCLUSIONS: The expected population capacity to benefit from ventilation tubes for otitis media with effusion based on NICE guidance appeared to exceed, by far, the number of ventilation tubes provided in the English National Health Service. So, while there is known 'overuse', there also may be substantial 'underuse' of ventilation tubes for otitis media with effusion if NICE criteria were applied. Future investigations of unwarranted variation should, therefore, not only focus on the patients who are treated but also consider the potential for benefit at the population level.

The political economy of rationing health care in England and the US: the 'accidental logics' of political settlements.

This article considers how the 'accidental logics' of political settlements for the English National Health Service (NHS) and the Medicare and Medicaid programmes in the United States have resulted in different institutional arrangements and different implicit social contracts for rationing, which we define to be the denial of health care that is beneficial but is deemed to be too costly. This article argues that rationing is designed into the English NHS and designed out of US Medicare; and compares rationing for the elderly in the United States and in England for acute care, care at the end of life, and chronic care.

A population health approach to reducing observational intensity bias in health risk adjustment: cross sectional analysis of insurance claims.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the performance of two new approaches to risk adjustment that are free of the influence of observational intensity with methods that depend on diagnoses listed in administrative databases. SETTING: Administrative data from the US Medicare program for services provided in 2007 among 306 US hospital referral regions. DESIGN: Cross sectional analysis. PARTICIPANTS: 20% sample of fee for service Medicare beneficiaries residing in one of 306 hospital referral regions in the United States in 2007 (n = 5,153,877). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The effect of health risk adjustment on age, sex, and race adjusted mortality and spending rates among hospital referral regions using four indices: the standard Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services--Hierarchical Condition Categories (HCC) index used by the US Medicare program (calculated from diagnoses listed in Medicare's administrative database); a visit corrected HCC index (to reduce the effects of observational intensity on frequency of diagnoses); a poverty index (based on US census); and a population health index (calculated using data on incidence of hip fractures and strokes, and responses from a population based annual survey of health from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention). RESULTS: Estimated variation in age, sex, and race adjusted mortality rates across hospital referral regions was reduced using the indices based on population health, poverty, and visit corrected HCC, but increased using the standard HCC index. Most of the residual variation in age, sex, and race adjusted mortality was explained (in terms of weighted R2) by the population health index: R2=0.65. The other indices explained less: R2=0.20 for the visit corrected HCC index; 0.19 for the poverty index, and 0.02 for the standard HCC index. The residual variation in age, sex, race, and price adjusted spending per capita across the 306 hospital referral regions explained by the indices (in terms of weighted R2) were 0.50 for the standard HCC index, 0.21 for the population health index, 0.12 for the poverty index, and 0.07 for the visit corrected HCC index, implying that only a modest amount of the variation in spending can be explained by factors most closely related to mortality. Further, once the HCC index is visit corrected it accounts for almost none of the residual variation in age, sex, and race adjusted spending. CONCLUSION: Health risk adjustment using either the poverty index or the population health index performed substantially better in terms of explaining actual mortality than the indices that relied on diagnoses from administrative databases; the population health index explained the majority of residual variation in age, sex, and race adjusted mortality. Owing to the influence of observational intensity on diagnoses from administrative databases, the standard HCC index over-adjusts for regional differences in spending. Research to improve health risk adjustment methods should focus on developing measures of risk that do not depend on observation influenced diagnoses recorded in administrative databases.

From data to decisions? Exploring how healthcare payers respond to the NHS Atlas of Variation in Healthcare in England.

PURPOSE: Although information on variations in health service performance is now more widely available, relatively little is known about how healthcare payers use this information to improve resource allocation. We explore to what extent and how Primary Care Trusts (PCTs) in England have used the NHS Atlas of Variation in Healthcare, which has highlighted small area variation in rates of expenditure, activity and outcome. METHODS: Data collection involved an email survey among PCT Chief Executives and a telephone follow-up to reach non-respondents (total response: 53 of 151 of PCTs, 35%). 45 senior to mid-level staff were interviewed to probe themes emerging from the survey. The data were analysed using a matrix-based Framework approach. FINDINGS: Just under half of the respondents (25 of 53 PCTs) reported not using the Atlas, either because they had not been aware of it, lacked staff capacity to analyse it, or did not perceive it as applicable to local decision-making. Among the 28 users, the Atlas served as a prompt to understand variations and as a visual tool to facilitate communication with clinicians. Achieving clarity on which variations are unwarranted and agreeing on responsibilities for action appeared to be important factors in moving beyond initial information gathering towards decisions about resource allocation and behaviour change. CONCLUSIONS: Many payers were unable to use information on small area variations in expenditure, activity and outcome. To change this what is additionally required are appropriate tools to understand causes of unexplained variation, in particular unwarranted variation, and enable remedial actions to be prioritised in terms of their contribution to population health.

Observational intensity bias associated with illness adjustment: cross sectional analysis of insurance claims.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the bias associated with frequency of visits by physicians in adjusting for illness, using diagnoses recorded in administrative databases. SETTING: Claims data from the US Medicare program for services provided in 2007 among 306 US hospital referral regions. DESIGN: Cross sectional analysis. PARTICIPANTS: 20% sample of fee for service Medicare beneficiaries residing in the United States in 2007 (n=5,153,877). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The effect of illness adjustment on regional mortality and spending rates using standard and visit corrected illness methods for adjustment. The standard method adjusts using comorbidity measures based on diagnoses listed in administrative databases; the modified method corrects these measures for the frequency of visits by physicians. Three conventions for measuring comorbidity are used: the Charlson comorbidity index, Iezzoni chronic conditions, and hierarchical condition categories risk scores. RESULTS: The visit corrected Charlson comorbidity index explained more of the variation in age, sex, and race mortality across the 306 hospital referral regions than did the standard index (R(2)=0.21 v 0.11, P<0.001) and, compared with sex and race adjusted mortality, reduced regional variation, whereas adjustment using the standard Charlson comorbidity index increased it. Although visit corrected and age, sex, and race adjusted mortality rates were similar in hospital referral regions with the highest and lowest fifths of visits, adjustment using the standard index resulted in a rate that was 18% lower in the highest fifth (46.4 v 56.3 deaths per 1000, P<0.001). Age, sex, and race adjusted spending as well as visit corrected spending was more than 30% greater in the highest fifth of visits than in the lowest fifth, but only 12% greater after adjustment using the standard index. Similar results were obtained using the Iezzoni and the hierarchical condition categories conventions for measuring comorbidity. CONCLUSION: The rates of visits by physicians introduce substantial bias when regional mortality and spending rates are adjusted for illness using comorbidity measures based on the observed number of diagnoses recorded in Medicare's administrative database. Adjusting without correction for regional variation in visit rates tends to make regions with high rates of visits seem to have lower mortality and lower costs, and vice versa. Visit corrected comorbidity measures better explain variation in age, sex, and race mortality than observed measures, and reduce observational intensity bias.

The rise of the regulatory state in health care: a comparative analysis of The Netherlands, England and Italy.

In a relatively short time, regulation has become a significant and distinct feature of how modern states wish to govern and steer their economy and society. Whereas the former 'dirigiste' state used to be closely related to public ownership (e.g. hospitals), planning (volume and capacity planning) and centralised administration (e.g. fixed prices and budgets), the new regulatory state relies mainly on the instrument of regulation to achieve its objectives. In this paper, we wish to relate the rise of the 'regulatory state' to the path-dependent trajectories and institutional legacies of discrete European health-care systems. For this purpose, we compared the Dutch corporatist social health insurance system, the strongly centralised National Health Service (NHS) of England and federal regionalised NHS system of Italy. Comparing these three different health-care systems suggests that it is indeed possible to identify a general trend towards the rise of the regulatory state in health care in the last two decades. However, although the three countries examined in this paper face similar problems of multilevel governance of networks of third-party payers and providers, each system also gives rise to its own distinct regulatory challenges.

Modelling the impact on avoidable cardiovascular disease burden and costs of interventions to lower SBP in the England population.

BACKGROUND: The burden of disease from cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains significant in England. Blood pressure remains an important risk factor. Health gain through public health measures and improving treatment compliance are potentially likely to be high. We assess the impact of known cost-effective interventions in terms of the avoidable CVD burden and costs by comparing these strategies to the current situation. METHODS: We modelled avoidable CVD outcomes simulating the English population aged over 16 years with Excel spreadsheets for the current prevention/treatment and following various interventions over a 10-year time frame. The outcome measures were avoidable incident heart disease and stroke events, deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Costs are reported from the health service perspective. We analysed relative cost-effectiveness, undertook sensitivity analysis and measured relative impacts of different strategies on avoidable burden of disease. RESULTS: The assessed interventions have a potential to reduce the current burden of disease between 70 000 and about 1 million DALYs over the 10-year frame. Although all interventions were cost-effective, some (e.g. Salt reduction in the population and 'Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension-sodium', which modelled the impact of salt reduction and dietary approaches) were cost-saving. The cost-effectiveness of treatment strategies was sensitive to drug costs. CONCLUSION: Evidence-based interventions appropriately scaled up for both prevention and treatment of blood pressure lead to important additional potential health gains. There was noticeable variance in cost-effectiveness and impact among the different interventions at a population level. Taking into account impact, priority should be given to prevention to reduce blood pressure at a population level through reduced salt consumption.